Sunday, August 27, 2006

Emmy Predictions, Part Five: Lead Actor/Actress

Well, the Emmys are just a few hours away, but I've made it to the end of my five-part series of blogs. Today we've reached the coveted awards for lead actor and actress. Here are my picks:

Outstanding Musical Performance in a Variety or Music Program
Barry Manilow, Barry Manilow: Music and Passion
Stephen Colbert, The Colbert Report
Craig Ferguson, The Late Late Show With Craig Ferguson
David Letterman, Late Show With David Letterman
Hugh Jackman, The 59th Annual Tony Awards

This is a weird category. It's as if they didn't have enough nominees for two separate categories, and decided to lump them all together. I have no idea how they are comparing the relative "talents" of each of these men (why no women, by the way?) so I will just make two guesses. If a non-talk show performance wins, the award will go to Hugh Jackman. I'm picking him if only for the eye candy factor. If a late-night host wins, Stephen Colbert will win. It's nice that he doesn't have to compete with Jon Stewart in this cateogory, and he may have a better shot.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
Kevin James, The King of Queens
Tony Shalhoub, Monk
Steve Carell, The Office
Charlie Sheen, Two and a Half Men

There are some pretty glaring omissions in this list of nominees. Jason Lee and Jason Bateman both deserve a spot in this category. It just needs saying. That said, there is only one other nominee that merits recognition: Steve Carell. Ricky Gervais' version of the boss on the British version of The Office is a tough act to follow. The show could have easily flopped, but Carell made the role his own.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Christopher Meloni, Law & Order: Special Victims Unit
Denis Leary, Rescue Me
Peter Krause, Six Feet Under
Kiefer Sutherland, 24
Martin Sheen, The West Wing

This is a pretty exciting category, since none of the nominees have ever won an Emmy for their respective roles. Ian McShane and Hugh Laurie belonged in this category, but were, unfortunately, overlooked. I would look for Denis Leary to win this award. He would certainly give a memorable acceptance speech! It's possible that Martin Sheen will win for his last season as the President, but I think Leary's fresh turn as Tommy Gavin will earn him an Emmy. I hope he decides to smoke onstage during his speech.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or a Movie
Charles Dance, Bleak House
Donald Sutherland, Human Trafficking
Ben Kingsley, Mrs. Harris
Jon Voight, Pope John Paul II
Andre Braugher, Thief

This is more of a fantasy pick than a realistic one, but I think Andre Braugher will win the Emmy in this category. He doesn't have nearly as many awards as he deserves. Watch Homicide: Life on The Street and tell me I'm wrong. I think Charles Dance was a superb villain in Bleak House, but it's more likely that the film will win best miniseries.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Lisa Kudrow, The Comeback
Jane Kaczmarek, Malcolm in the Middle
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, The New Adventures of Old Christine
Stockard Channing, Out of Practice
Debra Messing, Will & Grace

Is this category some sort of brain teaser? None of these women can currently produce anything resembling laughter. This is worse than an all-Housewives group of nominees. I just closed my eyes and pointed to Debra Messing--next!!

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer
Geena Davis, Commander In Chief
Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: Special Victims Unit
Frances Conroy, Six Feet Under
Allison Janney, The West Wing

Kyra Sedgwick is all over this thing. I may be biased by my desire to see Kevin Bacon in the audience (don't you love Kevin Bacon?), but I've heard that Sedgwick is pretty amazing as Brenda Johnson. Since three of the nominated roles are from shows that are now over, The Emmy may be one actress' parting gift. I'm still fairly sure that Sedgwick will win this evening, though.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or a Movie
Kathy Bates, Ambulance Girl
Gillian Anderson, Bleak House
Helen Mirren, Elizabeth I
Judy Davis, A Little Thing Called Murder
Annette Bening, Mrs. Harris

Having loved Gillian Anderson's solemn portrayal of Lady Dedlock, it's hard to imagine anyone else winning this award. In the event that she does not win, the award will most likely go to Annette Bening. HBO always gets a few throwaway awards.

Well, I'm definitely excited to watch the show tonight and see how accurate my guesses were. Hope you all enjoy the show, too.